Arouca – Estrela

Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.00	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.26	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.20	−2.5%
Betfair (net)	2.18	−3.5%
bet365	2.05	−9.2%

€37 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.55	3.47	3.38	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.57	3.72	3.52	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.00	2.26	2.18	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.51	1.87	1.81	1.78
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.97	2.15	2.08	1.98
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.25	3.27	3.06	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.80	1.44	1.41	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.26	2.93	2.65	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.79	1.52	1.53	1.41
Both teams to score · No	2.92	2.40	2.35	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	1.52	1.71	1.66	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.