Pogon Siedlce – Puszcza

Division 1, Poland · 2026-10-15 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.06	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.33	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.16	−5.1%
Betfair (net)	3.28	−1.5%
bet365	3.10	−6.9%

€33 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.61	3.00	2.88	2.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.06	3.33	3.28	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.43	2.73	2.52	2.40
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.23	2.03	1.95	1.88
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.45	1.97	1.90	1.83
Over/under 3.5 · Over	7.48	3.69	3.42	3.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.15	1.37	1.35	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.17	3.18	2.86	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.31	1.46	1.46	1.37
Both teams to score · No	1.65	2.34	2.14	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	2.55	1.75	1.73	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.