LKS Lodz – Ruch Chorzow

Division 1, Poland · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.56	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.88	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.75	−4.6%
Betfair (net)	2.79	−3.4%
bet365	2.50	−13.3%

€97 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.56	2.88	2.79	2.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.75	3.43	3.33	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.21	2.76	2.56	2.45
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.92	2.00	1.93	1.91
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.09	2.00	1.92	1.81
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.34	3.75	3.38	3.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.43	1.36	1.35	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.93	3.16	2.90	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.52	1.46	1.45	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.27	2.36	2.16	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	1.78	1.74	1.73	1.68

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.