FKS Stal Mielec – Warta Poznan

Division 1, Poland · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 10:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.42	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.24	−5.3%
Betfair (net)	3.52	+2.8%
bet365	3.30	−3.5%

€6 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	2.70	2.48	2.30
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.42	3.52	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.97	2.77	2.50
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.88	1.83	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.14	2.04	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.14	2.98	2.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.47	1.43	1.47
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.87	2.56	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.53	1.56	1.46
Both teams to score · No	—	2.45	2.25	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.69	1.66	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.