Vaduz – Basel

Super League, Switzerland · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · full time 3-0 (HT 2-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.57	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.68	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.60	−2.9%
Betfair (net)	2.54	−5.2%
bet365	2.45	−8.5%

€439 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.51	2.62	2.52	2.45
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.69	4.08	3.94	3.80
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.57	2.68	2.54	2.45
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.34	1.42	1.38	1.37
Over/under 2.5 · Under	3.90	3.40	3.26	2.87
Over/under 3.5 · Over	1.84	2.00	1.94	1.83
Over/under 3.5 · Under	2.19	2.00	1.95	1.88
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	1.92	2.03	1.95	1.93
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	2.09	1.97	1.88	1.78
Both teams to score · No	3.77	3.66	3.28	3.25
Both teams to score · Yes	1.36	1.38	1.38	1.30

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.