GKS Katowice – Wieczysta Krakow

Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 18:30 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.16	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.10	−2.7%
Betfair (net)	2.12	−1.8%
bet365	1.91	−11.5%

€1779 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	3.40	3.19	3.20
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	4.13	3.85	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.16	2.12	1.91
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.47	1.46	1.41
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	3.15	2.90	2.70
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	2.17	2.14	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.85	1.78	1.68
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.23	2.08	1.96
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.81	1.77	1.68
Both teams to score · No	—	3.31	2.95	2.70
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.43	1.44	1.37

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.