Piast Gliwice – Widzew Lodz

Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:45 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.32	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.51	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.36	−4.4%
Betfair (net)	3.42	−2.6%
bet365	3.25	−7.5%

€263 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.04	2.69	2.58	2.40
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.32	3.51	3.42	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.22	2.91	2.77	2.55
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.35	1.85	1.80	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.74	2.17	2.11	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.58	3.27	3.01	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.28	1.44	1.43	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.76	2.90	2.65	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.36	1.52	1.50	1.46
Both teams to score · No	1.95	2.56	2.35	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	2.05	1.64	1.64	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.