Pogon Szczecin – Korona Kielce

Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · full time 2-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.43	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.49	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.34	−4.2%
Betfair (net)	3.28	−5.9%
bet365	3.10	−11.1%

€217 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.64	3.41	3.23	3.20
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.43	3.49	3.28	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.03	2.38	2.27	2.10
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.30	2.02	1.93	1.91
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.77	1.98	1.94	1.81
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.44	3.64	3.38	3.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.29	1.38	1.36	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.23	3.15	2.88	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.45	1.47	1.45	1.37
Both teams to score · No	1.93	2.24	2.18	2.01
Both teams to score · Yes	2.07	1.81	1.74	1.66

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.