Legia – Wisla

Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · full time 2-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.66	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.32	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.18	−4.2%
Betfair (net)	3.28	−1.2%
bet365	3.00	−9.6%

€11 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.66	3.32	3.28	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.73	3.58	3.33	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.18	2.38	2.27	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.78	1.98	1.91	1.88
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.29	2.02	1.95	1.83
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.95	3.57	3.23	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.51	1.39	1.38	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.13	3.12	2.86	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.88	1.47	1.46	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.48	2.31	2.23	2.01
Both teams to score · Yes	1.68	1.76	1.70	1.66

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.