RFS – Jelgava

Virsliga, Latvia · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 4-2 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.19	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.08	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.07	−1.1%
Betfair (net)	1.11	+2.8%
bet365	1.08	−0.4%

€541 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	20.49	45.05	26.65	19.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	9.12	18.06	11.93	8.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.19	1.08	1.11	1.08
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.46	1.44	1.37	1.37
Over/under 2.5 · Under	3.19	3.28	3.33	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.12	2.00	1.95	1.81
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.89	2.00	1.92	1.91
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.12	2.06	1.95	1.88
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.89	1.95	1.91	1.83
Both teams to score · No	1.75	1.64	1.61	1.53
Both teams to score · Yes	2.33	2.56	2.42	2.20

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.