Kawasaki Frontale – Nagoya Grampus

J1 League, Japan · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 07:00 UTC · full time 1-2 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.93	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.77	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.74	−2.1%
Betfair (net)	1.76	−0.7%
bet365	1.62	−8.6%

€380 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.49	4.80	4.42	4.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.10	4.40	4.04	4.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.93	1.77	1.76	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.54	1.62	1.60	1.49
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.87	2.62	2.48	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.32	2.54	2.48	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.76	1.65	1.60	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.50	2.46	2.35	2.15
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.67	1.68	1.65	1.57
Both teams to score · No	2.73	2.67	2.46	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.58	1.60	1.61	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.