Verdy – Sanfrecce Hiroshima

J1 League, Japan · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 06:00 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.89	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.57	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.54	−1.8%
Betfair (net)	1.55	−1.1%
bet365	1.49	−5.0%

€45 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.89	1.57	1.55	1.49
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.87	4.54	4.13	3.75
Full time 1X2 · Home	4.68	7.03	6.51	6.50
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.07	1.96	1.89	1.81
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.48	2.04	2.01	1.91
Over/under 3.5 · Over	6.93	3.52	3.28	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.17	1.40	1.38	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.86	3.17	2.90	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.26	1.46	1.46	1.41
Both teams to score · No	1.54	1.98	1.93	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	2.84	2.02	1.94	1.91

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.