Shamrock Rovers – Bohemians

Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.57	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.18	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.05	−4.1%
Betfair (net)	3.09	−2.8%
bet365	3.10	−2.5%

€12 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.55	3.59	3.42	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.57	3.18	3.09	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.00	2.46	2.35	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.08	2.23	2.14	1.82
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.93	1.82	1.75	1.92
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.79	4.11	3.94	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.36	1.32	1.29	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.74	3.37	3.04	2.75
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.57	1.42	1.41	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.08	2.17	2.06	2.10
Both teams to score · Yes	1.93	1.85	1.81	1.63

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.