Zalaegerszegi – Nyiregyhaza

NB I., Hungary · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:45 UTC · full time 5-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.86	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.73	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.58	−5.7%
Betfair (net)	2.67	−2.3%
bet365	2.40	−12.2%

€2 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.86	2.73	2.67	2.40
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.51	3.53	3.42	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.19	2.85	2.63	2.57
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.08	1.84	1.76	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.93	2.18	2.10	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.79	3.23	2.94	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.36	1.45	1.42	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.11	2.77	2.63	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.47	1.56	1.51	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.13	2.52	2.29	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	1.89	1.66	1.62	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.