Honved – Ujpest

NB I., Hungary · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:45 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.30	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.90	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.76	−4.7%
Betfair (net)	2.88	−0.5%
bet365	2.57	−11.3%

€10 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.14	2.52	2.44	2.32
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.07	3.87	3.52	3.60
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.30	2.90	2.88	2.57
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.51	1.76	1.72	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.96	2.31	2.18	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.25	2.95	2.79	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.80	1.51	1.49	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.68	2.73	2.48	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.59	1.58	1.56	1.46
Both teams to score · No	3.10	2.64	2.42	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.48	1.61	1.59	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.