Apollon Kalamarias – Pas Pyrgos

Super League 2, Greece · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.47	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.12	−10.0%
Betfair (net)	3.14	−9.5%
bet365	3.30	−4.8%

€2 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	4.26	3.94	3.90
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.47	3.14	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.10	2.04	1.91
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	2.41	2.31	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	1.71	1.65	1.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	3.72	3.33	—
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.37	1.34	—

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.