PAOK – Kalamata

Super League, Greece · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · full time 1-3 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.25	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.23	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.21	−1.5%
Betfair (net)	1.24	+0.4%
bet365	1.19	−3.5%

€3411 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	17.36	14.05	13.82	11.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	6.93	8.47	6.89	6.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.25	1.23	1.24	1.19
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.47	1.59	1.59	1.50
Over/under 2.5 · Under	3.15	2.69	2.50	2.40
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.14	2.65	2.54	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.88	1.61	1.57	1.54
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	1.97	2.39	2.25	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	2.04	1.72	1.69	1.58

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.