Aris – Volos

Super League, Greece · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · full time 3-2 (HT 3-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	6.94	ref
Pinnacle fair	7.79	ruler
Pinnacle offered	7.03	−9.7%
Betfair (net)	7.65	−1.8%
bet365	—	—

€13 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	6.94	7.79	7.65	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.62	4.89	4.51	4.20
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.72	1.50	1.47	—
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.30	1.83	1.75	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.77	2.21	2.16	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.44	3.23	2.88	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.29	1.45	1.45	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.80	2.87	2.65	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.36	1.53	1.53	1.46
Both teams to score · No	1.80	1.99	1.93	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	2.25	2.01	1.95	1.91

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.