Caen – La Roche

National, France · 2026-10-15 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.41	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.50	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.31	−5.4%
Betfair (net)	3.47	−0.8%
bet365	3.50	+0.1%

€29 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.37	3.28	3.09	2.65
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.41	3.50	3.47	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.51	2.44	2.33	2.15
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.02	1.65	1.65	1.53
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.98	2.55	2.37	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.62	2.69	2.54	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.38	1.59	1.55	1.54
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.51	2.55	2.39	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.40	1.65	1.61	1.53
Both teams to score · No	2.23	2.96	2.46	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.81	1.51	1.55	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.