Dijon – Metz

Ligue 2, France · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 4-2 (HT 3-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.13	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.70	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.61	−3.4%
Betfair (net)	2.67	−1.1%
bet365	2.40	−11.2%

€294 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.13	2.70	2.67	2.40
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.93	3.56	3.33	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.62	2.86	2.75	2.50
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.94	1.92	1.89	1.76
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.06	2.08	2.00	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.40	3.47	3.26	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.42	1.40	1.39	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.74	2.94	2.73	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.36	1.52	1.49	1.41
Both teams to score · No	2.21	2.41	2.27	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	1.83	1.71	1.69	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.