Ebbsfleet – AFC Totton

National League South, England · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.52	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.45	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.41	−2.8%
Betfair (net)	1.39	−3.9%
bet365	1.37	−5.3%

€31 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	6.38	9.07	6.32	6.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.41	5.04	4.61	4.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.52	1.45	1.39	1.37
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.62	1.68	1.58	1.53
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.62	2.48	2.29	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.53	2.65	2.42	2.37
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.65	1.61	1.51	1.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.31	2.51	1.06	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.76	1.66	1.02	1.53
Both teams to score · No	2.23	2.09	1.01	1.79
Both teams to score · Yes	1.81	1.92	1.01	1.79

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.