Sydney FC – WS Wanderers

A-League, Australia · 2026-10-16 · kickoff 09:00 UTC · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.25	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.75	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.61	−3.8%
Betfair (net)	3.66	−2.5%
bet365	3.70	−1.4%

€52 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.74	3.05	2.86	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.25	3.75	3.66	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.01	2.46	2.37	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.85	1.73	1.72	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.17	2.37	2.22	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.16	2.86	2.75	2.57
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.46	1.54	1.49	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.14	2.60	2.46	2.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.47	1.63	1.58	1.50
Both teams to score · No	2.25	2.63	2.46	2.25
Both teams to score · Yes	1.80	1.61	1.58	1.54

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.