Muglaspor – Bursaspor

1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-15 · kickoff 17:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.65	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.59	−3.3%
Betfair (net)	1.62	−1.7%
bet365	1.53	−7.0%

€9 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	1.65	1.62	1.53
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	4.25	3.94	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	6.37	5.56	5.00
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.98	1.87	1.73
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.02	1.96	1.98
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.62	3.20	3.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.38	1.35	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.94	2.81	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.52	1.48	1.41
Both teams to score · No	—	2.00	1.95	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	—	2.00	1.84	1.76

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.