Mardin 1969 – Karagumruk

1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-15 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.53	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.02	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.62	−7.9%
Betfair (net)	4.71	−6.2%
bet365	4.10	−18.3%

€94 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.53	5.02	4.71	4.10
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.12	3.81	3.61	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.18	1.86	1.81	1.71
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.13	2.04	1.99	1.88
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.47	1.96	1.90	1.83
Over/under 3.5 · Over	7.12	3.76	3.52	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.16	1.36	1.34	1.27
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.44	3.15	2.95	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.29	1.47	1.43	1.37
Both teams to score · No	1.63	2.12	1.97	1.79
Both teams to score · Yes	2.58	1.89	1.89	1.79

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.