Manisa FK – Erokspor

1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-15 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.58	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.82	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.51	−8.1%
Betfair (net)	3.71	−2.9%
bet365	3.40	−11.0%

€5 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.56	1.90	1.81	1.87
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.58	3.82	3.71	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.03	4.71	4.42	3.75
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.98	1.79	1.72	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.02	2.26	2.13	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.52	3.06	2.82	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.40	1.48	1.44	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.66	2.65	2.52	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.60	1.60	1.52	1.49
Both teams to score · No	2.25	2.46	2.20	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.80	1.68	1.67	1.58

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.