Umraniyespor – Boluspor

1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.77	ref
Pinnacle fair	10.14	ruler
Pinnacle offered	8.47	−16.5%
Betfair (net)	8.41	−17.1%
bet365	7.00	−31.0%

€2 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.77	10.14	8.41	7.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.49	4.96	4.51	4.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.23	1.43	1.40	1.33
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.21	1.92	1.87	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.83	2.08	1.98	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.17	3.41	3.11	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.32	1.42	1.38	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.81	2.85	2.65	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.55	1.54	1.46	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.03	1.80	1.72	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	1.97	2.25	1.95	1.86

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.