Antalyaspor – Kayserispor

1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 0-4 (HT 0-3) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	5.04	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.97	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.83	−4.8%
Betfair (net)	2.86	−3.7%
bet365	2.57	−13.5%

€7 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.78	2.61	2.50	2.35
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.16	3.57	3.38	3.20
Full time 1X2 · Home	5.04	2.97	2.86	2.57
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.77	1.97	1.91	1.88
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.31	2.03	1.95	1.83
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.92	3.60	3.26	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.52	1.39	1.38	1.27
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.21	3.21	2.88	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.45	1.45	1.46	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.29	2.39	2.22	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	1.77	1.72	1.73	1.68

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.