Bursaspor – Mardin 1969

1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · full time 1-2 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	5.61	ref
Pinnacle fair	6.07	ruler
Pinnacle offered	5.48	−9.7%
Betfair (net)	5.75	−5.3%
bet365	5.50	−9.4%

€45 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-63 min	33 min	+5.1%	€80	6.13	+1.0%	won

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	5.61	6.07	5.75	5.50	33
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.47	4.16	3.94	3.80	0
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.87	1.68	1.62	1.46	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.70	1.95	1.84	1.78	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.59	2.06	2.05	1.93	0
Over/under 3.5 · Over	5.69	3.46	3.19	3.00	0
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.21	1.41	1.40	1.33	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.52	3.05	2.77	2.57	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.40	1.49	1.48	1.41	0
Both teams to score · No	1.68	2.07	1.95	1.79	0
Both teams to score · Yes	2.47	1.94	1.88	1.79	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.