Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul – Muglaspor

1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.81	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.75	−3.2%
Betfair (net)	1.76	−2.7%
bet365	1.66	−8.2%

€334 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	5.56	5.18	4.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.75	3.52	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	1.81	1.76	1.66
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	2.10	1.99	1.93
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	1.91	1.81	1.78
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.89	3.71	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.35	1.30	1.27
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	3.29	2.90	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.44	1.43	1.37
Both teams to score · No	—	2.02	1.95	1.79
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.98	1.91	1.79

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.