Tenerife – Girona

La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.61	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.25	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.14	−3.5%
Betfair (net)	3.09	−5.0%
bet365	3.10	−4.7%

€1608 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.16	2.73	2.65	2.35
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.61	3.25	3.09	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.85	3.06	2.90	3.00
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.42	2.26	2.13	2.10
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.71	1.80	1.78	1.67
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.80	4.36	3.94	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.26	1.30	1.29	1.22
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.95	3.53	3.14	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.34	1.40	1.40	1.30
Both teams to score · No	1.86	2.12	2.06	1.87
Both teams to score · Yes	2.16	1.89	1.81	1.77

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.