Oviedo – Eibar

La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · full time 3-1 (HT 2-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.24	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.05	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.95	−3.2%
Betfair (net)	2.90	−4.8%
bet365	3.00	−1.5%

€1845 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.14	3.21	3.04	2.85
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.24	3.05	2.90	3.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.68	2.78	2.65	2.55
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.01	2.67	2.50	2.45
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.50	1.60	1.58	1.46
Over/under 3.5 · Over	6.71	5.60	4.99	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.18	1.22	1.21	1.22
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.99	3.79	3.71	3.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.33	1.36	1.31	1.25
Both teams to score · No	1.69	1.89	1.84	1.68
Both teams to score · Yes	2.45	2.12	2.04	1.96

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.