Mallorca – Las Palmas

La Liga2, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · full time 3-1 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.25	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.55	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.52	−1.8%
Betfair (net)	1.51	−2.3%
bet365	1.49	−3.7%

€56 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.69	7.32	6.89	6.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	2.93	4.60	4.42	3.90
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.25	1.55	1.51	1.49
Over/under 2.5 · Over	4.38	2.00	1.93	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.30	2.00	1.97	1.86
Over/under 3.5 · Over	11.75	3.77	3.33	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.09	1.36	1.37	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.94	3.21	2.84	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.25	1.45	1.48	1.37
Both teams to score · No	1.43	1.91	1.88	1.76
Both teams to score · Yes	3.35	2.10	1.99	1.86

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.