Padova – Carrarese

Serie B, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:15 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.36	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.00	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.96	−2.2%
Betfair (net)	1.94	−3.2%
bet365	1.86	−7.2%

€2085 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.92	4.78	4.51	4.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.11	3.42	3.33	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.36	2.00	1.94	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.79	2.02	1.95	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.56	1.98	1.91	1.86
Over/under 3.5 · Over	5.97	3.58	3.43	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.20	1.39	1.35	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.90	3.14	2.88	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.34	1.47	1.45	1.37
Both teams to score · No	1.77	2.21	2.10	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	2.30	1.83	1.78	1.71

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.