Catanzaro – Mantova

Serie B, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 1-3 (HT 0-2) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.87	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.36	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.30	−2.5%
Betfair (net)	2.31	−2.1%
bet365	2.15	−8.9%

€249 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.50	3.58	3.38	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.12	3.37	3.19	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.87	2.36	2.31	2.15
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.64	1.94	1.90	1.81
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.55	2.06	1.97	1.91
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.60	3.33	3.28	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.63	1.43	1.39	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.42	3.08	2.84	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.70	1.48	1.47	1.41
Both teams to score · No	2.57	2.41	2.29	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	1.64	1.71	1.69	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.