Besiktas – Kocaelispor

Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 2-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.84	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.16	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.15	−1.1%
Betfair (net)	1.17	+1.0%
bet365	1.11	−4.2%

€1386 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	6.34	23.11	20.95	15.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.35	10.63	8.60	6.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.84	1.16	1.17	1.11
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.02	1.47	1.45	1.41
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.50	3.11	2.95	2.70
Over/under 3.5 · Over	6.74	2.24	2.14	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.17	1.81	1.76	1.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.72	2.19	2.08	1.96
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.37	1.84	1.79	1.68
Both teams to score · No	1.57	1.70	1.71	1.62
Both teams to score · Yes	2.74	2.42	2.22	2.05

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.