Brage – Helsingborg

Superettan, Sweden · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · full time 2-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.14	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.81	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.61	−5.2%
Betfair (net)	3.61	−5.2%
bet365	3.40	−10.7%

€47 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.06	3.23	3.14	2.82
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.14	3.81	3.61	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.32	2.34	2.25	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.60	1.78	1.74	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.66	2.28	2.18	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.49	2.97	2.90	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.67	1.51	1.45	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.43	2.75	2.60	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.70	1.57	1.52	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.80	2.56	2.33	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	1.56	1.64	1.63	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.