Orebro – Ljungskile

Superettan, Sweden · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.03	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.13	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.88	−6.0%
Betfair (net)	3.85	−6.8%
bet365	3.10	−24.9%

€122 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.03	4.13	3.85	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.74	4.05	3.80	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.49	1.96	1.93	1.92
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.94	1.68	1.68	1.58
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.06	2.47	2.33	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.41	2.71	2.63	2.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.42	1.59	1.53	1.47
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.38	2.59	2.44	2.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.42	1.63	1.60	1.50
Both teams to score · No	2.27	2.65	2.39	2.25
Both teams to score · Yes	1.79	1.61	1.63	1.54

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.