Varnamo – Falkenberg

Superettan, Sweden · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · full time 1-2 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.38	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.68	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.49	−5.1%
Betfair (net)	3.56	−3.0%
bet365	3.30	−10.2%

€89 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.92	3.15	3.00	2.65
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.38	3.68	3.56	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	4.00	2.44	2.33	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.57	1.67	1.62	1.53
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.76	2.49	2.41	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.40	2.66	2.56	2.37
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.71	1.60	1.57	1.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.51	2.55	2.42	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.66	1.64	1.60	1.53
Both teams to score · No	2.74	2.86	2.60	2.45
Both teams to score · Yes	1.58	1.54	1.54	1.46

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.