TSV Hartberg – Austria Lustenau

Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:30 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.39	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.33	−2.7%
Betfair (net)	2.29	−4.3%
bet365	2.20	−8.1%

€83 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	3.21	3.04	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.69	3.52	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.39	2.29	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.83	1.75	1.72
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.20	2.16	2.00
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.15	2.90	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.46	1.47	1.40
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.86	2.60	2.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.54	1.53	1.50
Both teams to score · No	—	2.48	2.35	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.68	1.65	1.61

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.