Hertha Berlin – Greuther Furth

2. Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.73	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.57	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.55	−1.6%
Betfair (net)	1.56	−0.9%
bet365	1.46	−7.2%

€54 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.79	6.01	5.46	5.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.67	5.05	4.80	4.33
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.73	1.57	1.56	1.46
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.56	1.42	1.38	1.30
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.77	3.40	3.28	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.39	2.04	1.97	1.91
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.72	1.96	1.89	1.81
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.23	2.09	1.99	1.96
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.81	1.91	1.88	1.76
Both teams to score · No	2.60	2.93	2.67	2.57
Both teams to score · Yes	1.63	1.52	1.51	1.41

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.