Vaasan Palloseura – IF Gnistan

Veikkausliiga, Finland · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 15:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.97	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.88	−3.1%
Betfair (net)	2.84	−4.4%
bet365	2.75	−7.5%

€41 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	2.97	2.84	2.75
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	3.71	3.47	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.54	2.48	2.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.79	1.76	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.27	2.17	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	3.03	2.94	2.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.49	1.46	1.47
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.82	2.63	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.55	1.53	1.46
Both teams to score · No	—	2.56	2.35	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.64	1.64	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.