Hacken – Orgryte

Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · full time 3-0 (HT 2-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.45	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.29	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.27	−1.6%
Betfair (net)	1.29	−0.4%
bet365	1.22	−5.4%

€1486 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	6.91	12.65	10.97	9.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.97	6.86	6.51	6.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.45	1.29	1.28	1.22
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.37	1.40	1.37	1.30
Over/under 2.5 · Under	3.71	3.52	3.33	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Over	1.90	2.00	1.92	1.81
Over/under 3.5 · Under	2.11	2.00	1.96	1.91
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.25	2.07	1.95	1.88
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.80	1.93	1.90	1.83
Both teams to score · No	2.76	2.27	2.14	2.01
Both teams to score · Yes	1.57	1.79	1.74	1.66

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.