Hammarby – Djurgarden

Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.48	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.34	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.09	−5.8%
Betfair (net)	4.32	−0.4%
bet365	4.10	−5.6%

€266 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.48	4.34	4.33	4.10
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.92	4.51	4.13	4.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.19	1.82	1.77	1.71
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.95	1.62	1.60	1.49
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.06	2.61	2.46	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.42	2.62	2.52	2.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.41	1.62	1.57	1.54
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.49	2.52	2.37	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.67	1.66	1.64	1.53
Both teams to score · No	2.21	2.63	2.41	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.83	1.61	1.61	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.