AGF Aarhus – Soenderjyske

Superliga, Denmark · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 17:00 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.51	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.49	−1.7%
Betfair (net)	1.49	−1.3%
bet365	1.45	−4.2%

€1 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	6.72	6.32	6.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	5.25	4.89	4.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	1.51	1.49	1.45
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.50	1.48	1.44
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.98	2.88	2.60
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	2.28	2.19	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.78	1.75	1.68
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.29	2.10	1.96
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.78	1.77	1.68
Both teams to score · No	—	2.54	2.39	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.65	1.62	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.