St. Liege – Charleroi

Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.62	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.95	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.86	−3.1%
Betfair (net)	2.86	−3.0%
bet365	2.70	−8.5%

€4 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.15	2.59	2.50	2.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.32	3.63	3.38	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.62	2.95	2.86	2.70
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.50	1.86	1.82	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.67	2.17	2.06	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	5.07	3.22	3.09	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.25	1.45	1.40	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.53	2.77	2.62	2.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.40	1.56	1.53	1.41
Both teams to score · No	1.89	2.48	2.29	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	2.12	1.68	1.67	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.