KV Mechelen – St. Truiden

Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 17:15 UTC · full time 4-3 (HT 3-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.89	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.16	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.05	−3.4%
Betfair (net)	3.04	−3.6%
bet365	2.82	−10.7%

€17 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.60	2.43	2.35	2.20
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.73	3.67	3.47	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.89	3.16	3.04	2.82
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.89	1.74	1.70	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.13	2.35	2.24	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.25	2.86	2.82	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.44	1.54	1.48	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.92	2.65	2.50	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.52	1.61	1.57	1.49
Both teams to score · No	2.35	2.65	2.50	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.74	1.60	1.58	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.