Telstar – Den Haag

Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · full time 2-2 (HT 2-2) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.75	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.43	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.36	−2.8%
Betfair (net)	2.29	−5.6%
bet365	2.25	−7.3%

€2122 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	5.31	3.21	3.14	2.82
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.16	3.62	3.47	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.75	2.43	2.29	2.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.76	1.80	1.75	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.32	2.26	2.17	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.90	2.98	2.88	2.50
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.52	1.50	1.46	1.47
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.81	2.75	2.60	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.36	1.57	1.53	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.28	2.57	2.41	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.78	1.64	1.62	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.