1. FC Cologne – Borussia Monchengladbach

Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 13:30 UTC

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	—	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.04	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.00	−1.9%
Betfair (net)	2.01	−1.6%
bet365	—	—

€2710 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	—	3.83	3.61	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	—	4.03	3.75	—
Full time 1X2 · Home	—	2.04	2.01	—
Over/under 2.5 · Over	—	1.54	1.51	—
Over/under 2.5 · Under	—	2.84	2.72	—
Over/under 3.5 · Over	—	2.35	2.27	—
Over/under 3.5 · Under	—	1.74	1.70	—
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	—	2.27	2.20	—
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	—	1.79	1.71	—
Both teams to score · No	—	3.02	2.86	—
Both teams to score · Yes	—	1.49	1.48	—

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.