Freiburg – Schalke

Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · full time 2-1 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.24	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.66	ruler
Pinnacle offered	5.32	−5.9%
Betfair (net)	5.46	−3.4%
bet365	5.25	−7.2%

€21 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.24	5.66	5.46	5.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.60	4.36	4.04	4.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.06	1.68	1.65	1.61
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.20	1.64	1.58	2.37
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.84	2.57	2.48	1.57
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.14	2.57	2.40	2.37
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.32	1.64	1.59	1.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.76	2.42	2.27	2.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.36	1.71	1.57	1.57
Both teams to score · No	1.99	2.48	2.35	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	2.01	1.68	1.59	1.61

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.