Troyes – Marseille

Ligue 1, France · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.55	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.14	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.10	−2.0%
Betfair (net)	2.10	−1.9%
bet365	1.96	−8.5%

€61 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.55	2.14	2.10	1.96
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.15	3.71	3.56	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	6.19	3.79	3.52	3.60
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.50	1.81	1.77	1.76
Over/under 2.5 · Under	3.00	2.23	2.15	1.96
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.23	3.01	2.90	2.57
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.82	1.50	1.46	1.46
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.92	2.72	2.58	2.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.52	1.58	1.55	1.41
Both teams to score · No	2.54	2.47	2.33	2.05
Both teams to score · Yes	1.65	1.68	1.65	1.62

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.